The Depth Gauge

Fri 17 Jul 2026

The Summer Trough

Dubai loads for Q4. Ohio's cities are racing to add STR safety rules before state law takes them away.

Today's readings

19.59 million
Dubai international visitors in 2025 (the benchmark operators are targeting for recovery)
Dh1 billion
DET emergency support package that bridged hotels through the trough
3
shootings at Greater Cincinnati STRs in recent months, now driving state preemption debate
500%
booking surge in NJ towns near MetLife for the World Cup Final weekend

Dubai's hotel operators are done waiting for summer demand to recover — they're booking for Q4 and saying so by name. Meanwhile, in Ohio, a third shooting at a Greater Cincinnati short-term rental is colliding with pending state legislation that would remove local governments' power to do what Reynoldsburg just did: pass safety rules.


GCC Market

Dubai's hoteliers have stopped waiting for summer to end — they're already loading for Q4

UAE / Gulf

Three hotel general managers spoke to Gulf News on 14th July about how Dubai's operators are approaching the back half of 2026. The picture is consistent: summer demand is below historical norms, but these operators are not waiting for conditions to change before preparing.[1]

Khalid Saeed, General Manager at Al Habtoor Grand Resort, Autograph Collection, named the markets he's watching most closely. "We expect Q4 to be a strong period in terms of both demand and occupancy. We are seeing positive booking trends across our key source markets as travel continues to recover. In particular, we anticipate a rapid rebound from the UK Market, as well as the Russian and CIS." He said bookings spiked after travel restrictions were eased and expects Q4 to return to 2025 levels in occupancy and overall business.

Stefan Schmid, Complex General Manager at Al Jaddaf Rotana Complex, was more measured. "We expect a strong bounce-back in Q4, and while not yet at pre-crisis levels, improving travel sentiment and DET support give us confidence in a meaningful recovery." His property has bolstered teams, invested in staff training, and completed preventative maintenance in preparation.

Haytham Omar, Managing Director of Sofitel Dubai The Obelisk, was direct: "Q4 is set to be another strong season, driven by Dubai's world-class events calendar, robust business activity and sustained local and international leisure demand."

Hotels used the quieter summer months to prepare. Al Habtoor Grand completed new carpets, refreshed interiors, and public area improvements. Accor shut four of its Dubai properties for renovation during the same period.[2]

The structural bridge came from DET's Dh1 billion economic incentive package, which allowed hotels to defer 100% of sales fees on rooms, food and beverage, and the Tourism Dirham for three months. That deferral ended 30th June. Sustained destination marketing from DET has helped maintain international visibility in the interim.

The benchmark operators are working toward is Dubai's 2025 record: 19.59 million international visitors — the city's third consecutive record year for international visitation. That's the watermark the city's hotels are positioning against for the festive season and into 2027.

So what: Hotels that held rate and used the downtime for refurbishment are the ones best positioned for the Q4 return of long-haul leisure. The festive season and New Year are the real credibility test — and the bookings already moving from UK, Russia, and CIS markets are the leading indicator hoteliers should be watching.


Regulation

Ohio's cities are adding STR safety rules just as state lawmakers consider taking that power away

United States — Ohio

A July 15 shooting at a Corryville property near the University of Cincinnati was the third at a Greater Cincinnati short-term rental in recent months. ShotSpotter detected roughly 50 rounds fired during a party of about 75 people at a property whose Vrbo listing advertised a strict no-party policy. One man was injured.[3]

Two days before that shooting, Reynoldsburg City Council voted unanimously to pass the city's first STR ordinance, following prior gunfire incidents and complaints about disruptive parties. The rules require a $225 annual city permit, restrict each rental to the owner's primary residence, cap occupancy at two guests per bedroom, set a three-night minimum stay, and limit parking to four vehicles. Permit revocation is possible for noise violations, delinquent taxes, or guests trespassing on neighboring properties within 500 feet.[4]

Fox19 reported on July 15 that Ohio state lawmakers are now actively considering Senate Bill 104, which would remove local governments' authority to ban short-term rentals outright, cap their total number, or require owner occupancy — precisely the tools Reynoldsburg just adopted, and what other Ohio cities are currently building. Leaders in at least one Greater Cincinnati community were heading to court this week to try to stop the violence at a specific property, separate from the legislative timeline.[3]

Ohio currently has no state preemption law for STRs. Cities hold broad authority to regulate land use, licensing, and nuisance issues related to short-term rentals. SB 104 would substantially narrow that authority. Cities that have already passed ordinances — or are in the process of passing them right now — would need to review whether their specific rules survive the new state standard.

So what: The preemption paradox in Ohio is live, not theoretical. Local governments are adding safety mechanisms in direct response to documented violence at specific properties, while the state legislature is simultaneously moving toward removing the authority to add those mechanisms. Whether that creates a window to pass rules before a bill clears committee, or puts cities in the position of defending newly-passed ordinances in state court, is a timeline question worth tracking closely.


Also worth watching


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