The near-term pain for Gulf tourism is already priced in. What came out of the WTTC's research labs on Sunday is a number for the other side: $605 billion by 2036, growing faster than any other region on earth. Read alongside Cushman & Wakefield Core's Q2 Dubai property report — prices down 4 percent, rents down 6 percent, 32,000 units arriving in the next six months — and today's issue is essentially two time horizons talking to each other.
GCC Forecast
WTTC: Middle East T&T to contract 14.5% in 2026, then grow faster than any other region through 2036
Middle East / GCC
The World Travel & Tourism Council released updated Economic Impact Research on 9th August showing the Middle East will be the only region worldwide to record a Travel & Tourism GDP decline in 2026, with the sector expected to fall 14.5 percent — from $386 billion in 2025 to $330 billion — as ongoing regional disruption continues to weigh on airspace and international travel flows.[1]
The same report forecasts the Middle East will be the world's fastest-growing T&T region from 2026 through 2036, expanding at 6.3 percent annually to reach $605 billion by the decade's end. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar are specifically identified as the anchors of that trajectory, with those four markets together generating $272 billion in T&T GDP in 2025 and projected to reach $435 billion by 2036.[1]
Within that group, Saudi Arabia recorded 19.4 percent growth in T&T investment in 2025, supported by Vision 2030 and a pipeline of large-scale projects. The UAE is described as the region's most mature tourism economy, contributing 11.9 percent of GDP, supporting 13.6 percent of total employment, and underpinned by nearly $57 billion in international visitor spending.[1]
"The Middle East is facing a challenging period, and Travel & Tourism is often among the first sectors to feel the impact of geopolitical disruption. But history repeatedly shows that our sector is remarkably resilient," said Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO. "The long-term picture is clear: the Middle East is set to be the world's fastest-growing Travel & Tourism region."
So what: The WTTC report matters less for the 2026 number — operators already know it is a difficult year — and more for the planning horizon it sets. A 6.3% annual growth rate through 2036, anchored by the Saudi and UAE pipelines, is the framework serious STR investors in the Gulf are building around. Supply decisions made at below-peak valuations this year get evaluated against that decade-long curve.
Dubai Market
Dubai property prices fall 4% in Q2 as rents drop 6% and 32,000 units head toward H2 delivery
Dubai / UAE
Dubai's residential market cooled further in the second quarter of 2026, according to a Cushman & Wakefield Core report published on 9th August.[2] City-wide residential sale prices fell 4 percent quarter-on-quarter and average rents dropped 6 percent as new supply entered the market and buyer activity eased following several years of rapid growth.
Apartment declines were sharpest in premium submarkets: Palm Jumeirah apartments fell 9 percent, Downtown Dubai and Business Bay both declined 7 percent. Rental softening was more pronounced — Downtown Dubai apartment rents fell 14 percent in the quarter, Dubai Hills Estate and Dubai Marina each dropped 10 percent, and Dubai Hills Estate villa rents declined 12 percent.[2]
More than 13,200 homes were completed during Q2, including projects in Sobha Hartland, Damac Lagoons, Jebel Ali Village, and The Valley. Cushman & Wakefield Core expects approximately 32,000 additional units in the second half of 2026, though it flagged contractor capacity constraints and supply chain issues as factors that could affect delivery timing.[2]
The consultancy said price corrections have become "increasingly evident" across most apartment and villa submarkets and expects further moderation as transaction volumes remain subdued, buyer and seller expectations continue to diverge, and additional housing supply comes to market.
So what: For short-term rental operators, this data cuts two ways. Falling LTR rents compress the opportunity-cost premium of operating a unit as STR rather than a tenancy — the math that justified short-term rentals gets tighter as long-term rents soften. At the same time, 32,000 units of new housing over six months adds potential STR inventory at a moment when hotel RevPAR is already under pressure from weak tourism demand. Operators already in the market need rate strategies that reflect both dynamics simultaneously.
Regulation
Irving TX treats residential STRs as conditional uses from July 31; Pittsburgh's two-ordinance package deferred to autumn
United States
Irving, Texas began requiring new short-term rentals in most single-family homes and townhomes within residential districts to obtain a Conditional Use Permit as of July 31, 2026 — treating residential STRs as a commercial activity requiring affirmative zoning approval rather than a permitted-by-right use. The City of Irving confirmed the effective date in an announcement on August 6.[3]
In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, two ordinances advancing the city's STR framework slipped to the autumn calendar. One separates owner-occupied stays from off-site owned units and would confine the latter mostly to riverfront areas; the other requires a certificate of occupancy and a named local contact for every listing. The Planning Commission hears the zoning text amendment on September 8, with a Council committee vote on licensing tentatively set for October 21.[4]
The Irving CUP model is worth isolating as a mechanism. Rather than STRs being allowed unless expressly restricted, new residential operators must affirmatively obtain permission before going live. That shifts enforcement: an unlicensed residential STR becomes a zoning violation by definition, not simply an unregistered one — a meaningfully different legal footing for code enforcement teams.
So what: The CUP approach Irving adopted is increasingly the mechanism cities reach for when they want to reduce new STR density without outright banning them — each application evaluated individually against neighborhood context. If Pittsburgh passes both ordinances in the autumn, it will produce one of the more granular geographic splits in the US: owner-occupied operators citywide, investor-owned units limited to specific riverfront corridors.
Also worth watching
New Orleans council considering eliminating 'Non-Commercial Short-Term Rentals' as a land use category entirely. A package of three reforms that went to the August 6 council hearing would strip all references to residential rentals from the Comprehensive Zoning Ordinance — a more categorical approach than the per-block lottery model the Fifth Circuit upheld earlier this month.[5]
New Jersey A5172 would require the property owner to be physically present during any short-term rental stay. Introduced June 1 and referred to the Assembly Housing Committee, the bill would effectively eliminate unhosted rentals statewide if enacted.[6]
Tremont, Maine launched a community survey on STR regulation as Maine's state preemption law (LD 2173) counts down to July 1, 2027. About 329 of Tremont's 1,200 homes currently operate as rentals. LD 2173 will raise allowable residential density, setting a window for towns that want local rules in place before the state framework arrives.[5]
Meredith, NH holds a public hearing today on two amendments that would streamline STR applications and cut the annual license fee for owner-in-residence operators — a rare fee reduction proposal at a moment when most US regulatory movement runs the opposite direction.[5]
