Today's signals: US STR occupancy forecast at 57.4% for 2026 — above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0% — with RevPAR growing 2.9% on the back of accelerating nightly rates. Kansas City led all US World Cup host cities in STR booking growth at 72%, with a match-week fill rate of 62%. Semifinals in Dallas and Atlanta start tomorrow; the Final is at MetLife on July 19.
Market Performance
AirDNA's midyear verdict: supply growth has slowed enough to matter, and existing operators are capturing it
United States
AirDNA's Bram Gallagher published the firm's 2026 midyear outlook on July 8, framing it plainly: this is a better year to own than to buy.[1]
The reason is structural. The wave of new short-term rental listings that defined 2023 and 2024 has materially eased. New listing growth is forecast at 2.7% for the full year — the same rate as demand growth, and below what projections called for at the start of the year. Mortgage rates climbed back above 6% in H1 2026 as rate-cut expectations failed to materialise, and that's kept a significant pool of potential STR investors on the sidelines long enough to change the competitive environment for the operators already in the market.[2]
The pricing data reflects it. Average daily rate growth accelerated from 0.7% year-over-year in January to approximately 3% by spring. Occupancy is forecast to hold at 57.4% for the full year — marginally above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0% — and revenue per available rental is projected to grow 2.9%, driven almost entirely by nightly rate rather than occupancy. AirDNA's framing for the forward view: 2027 looks stronger than expected from this vantage point, with the supply constraint compounding into the following year.
The mechanism is not complicated. Established operators are facing less new competition than they were twelve months ago. The question is whether to capture that by pricing accordingly or to hold at last year's rate and watch yield come in below what the current market would support.
So what: The operators who already own STR inventory are in the most defensible position of the past three years. This window — where high entry costs are actively reducing competition — is not permanent. Rates will eventually ease, supply will return. But 2026 and 2027 are the years to price from a position of strength and tighten operations. Not to sit on rate.
Events & Demand
The World Cup's final days are confirming what the tournament has been teaching about last-minute event demand
North America
France play Spain in Dallas tomorrow, England play Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday, and the Final takes place at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The tournament is in its last week, which means there is now enough data to read how the accommodation market actually behaved versus how it was projected to behave.
Kansas City's outcome is the sharpest read available. AirDNA's tournament tracker puts Kansas City STR booking growth at 72% among US host cities — the highest in the country. Match-week fill rates reached 62%. The rate picture, though, is more instructive than the volume numbers: average listed rates during group-stage games hit $706 per night, up 270% from 2025's $191, while the actual achieved booked rate was $287 — up 48% from $194, but far below listed. AirDNA's data shows 13% of Kansas City's new short-term rental inventory during the tournament was tied exclusively to World Cup dates, compared to fewer than 4% in other host cities. That speculative, event-specific supply was priced well above what the market would pay.[3]
The broader pattern across host cities has confirmed a thesis that STR analysts anticipated but couldn't previously quantify at tournament scale: demand for major events arrives overwhelmingly late. Hotels and short-term rentals that tracked below expectations in the weeks before match windows saw demand consolidate in the final 7-10 days — not stay absent. New York City's hotels, which faced months of concern about sluggish World Cup bookings, reached 90.5% occupancy during key match periods, with average daily rates at $458.64 and up 38% against the same weeks last year.[4] The American Hotel & Lodging Association's survey found four in five hotel operators had reported below-expectation bookings at some point during the tournament — but the last-minute wave has since made most of those markets whole.[5]
The Final's booking window is the remaining live variable. With finalists unknown until after tomorrow and Wednesday, the July 19 surge has not yet started in earnest. Whatever the rate picture looks like for the Final week in New York and New Jersey will be the tournament's last data point on whether last-minute demand holds at peak pricing or trades off volume for it.
So what: Operators managing event markets should treat early-tournament occupancy data as almost entirely misleading as a forward indicator. Kansas City's gap between listed and booked rates also signals something specific: new, speculative inventory created for an event prices above what the market absorbs. Established inventory at more rational rates does the actual business.
In a year where supply has slowed and demand has consolidated, the operators in position before the shift — either in the US market broadly or in an event city where last-minute demand compresses hard — are the ones capturing pricing power. New entrants, whether would-be STR investors waiting for mortgage rates to fall or hosts who built event-only inventory at inflated list prices, are working against the current rather than with it.
Also worth watching
Alameda, CA planning board considers STR ordinance tonight. The proposal would require annual permits and restrict hosting to primary residences or owner-occupied multi-unit properties, with complaint-based enforcement and no annual night cap for owner-occupied units. The city has opted into California's SB 346 (Short-Term Rental Facilitator Act), which lets it compel Airbnb and Vrbo to report listing addresses and owner data — supporting a 14% transient occupancy tax that brought in more than $700,000 last year despite inconsistent compliance.[6]
EU STR data-sharing rules now in effect; Spain's enforcement track sets the standard. EU Regulation 2024/1028 has been in force since May 20, requiring all Member States and booking platforms to operate interoperable registration systems and report data monthly via national digital entry points. Spain's courts upheld a €64 million fine against Airbnb on March 23, rejecting the platform's bid to delay payment during appeal — setting the precedent for what enforcement under the new framework looks like. Barcelona remains on track to end 10,101 tourist apartment licences by November 2028.[7][8]
Manatee County, Florida: residents at July 8 town hall demanded a ban, not regulation. Commissioners are considering new STR rules for coastal areas including Cortez and west Bradenton, which currently have no local rules. Staff proposals would expand STR permissions into residential zones; residents pushed for an outright ban instead. No decision date has been set.[9]
