GCC Recovery
Operators Stop Hedging, Start Staking
GCC / UAE / Saudi Arabia
With ATM 2026 six weeks out — September 14-17 at Dubai World Trade Centre — a wave of pre-show statements released on August 13 shows something different this cycle. Instead of hedging, hotel chains are staking commercial positions. The coordinated releases by WTM/RX, ATM's organiser, and individual operators frame the show not as a networking event but as a forward order book.[1]
The numbers behind the confidence: Minor Hotels, which operates 26 properties across the region, reported on July 8 that room-night bookings for Q3 jumped 143% during the final full week of June compared to the prior year — the stays they were selling into are happening right now. Q3 forward ADR tracked 17.1% above the same period last year. Wholesale demand for the same window surged 575%, with the UK, Germany, and Russia as the lead source markets.[2]
IHG's Haitham Mattar, Managing Director for India, Middle East and Africa, told Gulf Business in August that the company's Q4 forward booking pace is recovering, driven by domestic GCC travellers and Indian visitors.[3] IHG simultaneously signed a franchise agreement on August 11 to introduce Cantonal Hotel Riyadh as the first Noted Collection property in the Middle East — a premium brand expansion at a moment when H1 was commercially bruising across the region (UAE RevPAR down 31.8% year-to-date through June).[4] You don't sign new brands into markets you've given up on.
The pre-ATM framing across operators centres on experience-led programming, wellness, branded residences, and AI-powered personalisation — product bets that signal a three-year horizon, not a defensive posture for Q3.
So what: The Gulf recovery bet has moved from balance-sheet endurance to forward positioning. A 143% Q3 bookings jump, a new brand signing, and coordinated pre-show operator statements are each individually notable. Together, they show institutional conviction that the disruption period is ending — not extending.
US Market
CoStar Raises US Hotel Forecast to +4.4% RevPAR After Record H1
United States
At the 18th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville (August 5-7), CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their full-year US RevPAR growth projection by 1.6 percentage points — from 2.8% to 4.4%. The revision followed a first half that outpaced all pre-year forecasts by a meaningful margin.[5]
The underlying data: US hotels sold 11.4 million more room nights in H1 2026 than in the same period of 2025, adding $5.4 billion in room revenue. Q1 2026 RevPAR hit a record high. CoStar cited two explicit tailwinds in the revision — the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations — which generated ADR premiums in host cities during peak weeks.[6]
The revised full-year framework sits at 63.1% occupancy (up 0.3 percentage points from the prior forecast), ADR +3.1%, RevPAR +4.4%. Supply growth remains contained at +0.4% for 2026; new-build economics haven't improved enough to accelerate the pipeline, and that supply constraint is doing significant work in holding occupancy. The 2027 forecast is more measured — RevPAR +2.1%, as event tailwinds normalise and growth runs on underlying GDP (projected at +2.6%).
So what: A 1.6 ppt upward revision is a strong institutional signal, but the composition matters. Demand growth is +1.7%, meaning most of the RevPAR expansion is ADR-driven. That's defensible in a year with FIFA premiums. It becomes the real test in 2027 when those premiums don't repeat.
US Regulation
Greenville NC Passes STR Ordinance Unanimously; Irving TX Requirements Go Live
US — North Carolina, Texas
Two regulatory moves from this past week, in markets that illustrate how the US STR landscape has shifted from moratoriums and bans toward permit systems.
In Greenville, NC, the city council voted unanimously on August 13 to allow short-term rentals across several residential districts — RA20, R9S, R6, and TH10 — under a registration-and-permit system. The requirements: $1 million in liability insurance, a bar on exterior advertising, and a prohibition on gatherings exceeding the registered guest count. Fines escalate from $100 to $500, with permit revocation on a fourth violation within 12 months. The Planning and Zoning Board had recommended approval on July 21.[7] A unanimous vote in a market where STR debates routinely fracture local government is worth noting.
In Irving, TX, new short-term rental requirements took effect August 14 — one month after the city council voted July 30 to require a Conditional Use Permit for new STR owners. Hosts cannot operate without the zoning approval. Irving is among several Texas cities tightening the framework since HEA 1210 preemption took effect July 1, the state law that prevents outright bans but leaves the permit and zoning apparatus intact.[8]
So what: The STR regulatory story in the US is increasingly less about yes/no bans and more about registration density, insurance requirements, and permit enforcement. Greenville's unanimous vote and Irving's live requirements represent the operational build-out of a middle path that was theoretical two years ago.
Also worth watching
Maui, HI (August 19). Housing and Land Use Committee reconvenes Monday to revisit Resolutions 26-129 and 26-130, which would rezone roughly 2,554 apartment-district units to H-3/H-4 hotel districts ahead of Ordinance 5909's 2029/2031 STR phase-out. No vote is scheduled.[9]
Arapahoe County, CO (August 23). Legacy STR application window closes next week. Operators running before June 20, 2026 must apply by August 23 to access the legacy exemption; after that date, the exemption is gone.[10]
Duluth, MN. Mayor Roger Reinert said August 11 he supports banning future conversions of single-family homes to short-term rentals, following a yearlong city study. Council must act before an October moratorium expiry.[11]
Dubai (August 26). Law No. 4 of 2026 on shared housing is 10 days from enforcement. Permit requirements, subletting ban, and fines up to Dh1 million all take effect on the 26th.[12]
Pittsburgh, PA. Planning Commission hears STR zoning on September 8; Council committee vote expected October 21.[13]
Three different markets — Gulf hotel chains, US hotel institutional forecasters, US STR ordinance writers — each made a commitment this week. The posture is the same in each case: the hedging period is over. Confidence is going on record.
